KEY POINTS:
• According to PBS NewsHour, heavy monsoon rains killed at least 54 people in eastern Pakistan in 24 hours, bringing the total rain-related deaths to 178 over the past three weeks
• The Pakistan Meteorological Department reported that the country experienced 82% more rainfall this month compared to July 2024, according to PBS NewsHour
• Al Jazeera reported that more than 120 people have died in Pakistan due to climate-related incidents in the past three weeks, including 63 children
• According to Nature Communications, a study found that by 2100, global flood exposure could rise from 1.6 to 1.9 billion people, driven 21% by climate change and 77% by population growth
• World Weather Attribution reported that climate change made the 2024 Spanish floods about 12% heavier and twice as likely compared to pre-industrial climate
• According to ECMWF, at least 232 people lost their lives in the Valencia floods with damages totalling around €16.5 billion
Devastating Monsoon Rains Strike Pakistan
According to PBS NewsHour on July 17, 2025, heavy monsoon rains killed at least 54 people in eastern Pakistan in 24 hours, bringing the total rain-related deaths in the country to 178 over the past three weeks. The Pakistan Meteorological Department reported that Pakistan experienced 82% more rainfall this month compared to the same period in July 2024, according to PBS NewsHour.
Al Jazeera reported on July 17, 2025, that since June 26, Pakistan has reported 178 deaths from Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the northwest, Sindh in the south and Balochistan in the southwest. The publication reported that Punjab province received 124% more rainfall between July 1 and July 15 than the same period the previous year.
CNN reported on July 17, 2025, that at least 85 children have been killed since flooding began on June 26, according to the National Disaster Management Authority. The publication reported that fears are mounting for children, who are particularly vulnerable to drowning and waterborne diseases.
According to Al Jazeera on July 17, 2025, the National Disaster Management Authority revealed that about two-thirds of the deaths were caused by house collapses and flash floods, while drowning accounted for just more than one in 10 of the deaths. The publication reported that Pakistan, which has a population in excess of 250 million, is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change.
Historical Context and 2022 Comparison
According to the World Bank on October 28, 2022, a damage and needs assessment following the floods estimated total damages to exceed USD 14.9 billion and total economic losses to reach about USD 15.2 billion, with the World Bank and Pakistan Climate Change Council claiming damage stood at US$40 billion. The British Red Cross reported that more than 1,700 people lost their lives in the 2022 Pakistan floods according to the Pakistan National Disaster Management Authority. Britannica reported on October 2, 2024, that the floods killed more than 1,700 people and affected an estimated 33 million people.
Al Jazeera reported on July 17, 2025, that according to estimates at the time, the 2022 floods caused $14.8bn in damage to property and land and a loss of $15.2bn in the country’s gross domestic product. The publication reported that the devastating floods of 2022 killed nearly 1,700 people and displaced more than 30 million nationwide.
PBS NewsHour reported that authorities have warned they cannot rule out a repeat of extreme weather like the 2022 floods that inundated a third of the country, killing 1,737 people. Associated Press reported on June 30, 2025, that Irfan Virk, a Pakistan Meteorological Department deputy director, said that forecasters cannot rule out a repeat of extreme weather like the devastating floods in 2022.
Global Flooding Patterns in 2024-2025
Valencia, Spain Floods
According to ECMWF on April 22, 2025, at least 232 people lost their lives in the floods with infrastructure damage and economic losses totalling around €16.5 billion. The Olive Press reported on April 18, 2025, that of the 335 people that died in floods in Europe in 2024, 232 perished in the Valencia disaster. According to the World Meteorological Organization on November 4, 2024, a weather station in Chiva received 491 l/m² in just eight hours – the equivalent of a year’s worth of rainfall.
CNN reported on November 1, 2024, that the storm killed at least 205 people, including 202 in the worst-hit Valencia region. According to NASA Earth Observatory on October 31, 2024, Spain’s meteorological agency AEMET reported that more than 300 millimeters (12 inches) of rain fell in parts of the province on October 29, with the town of Chiva receiving nearly 500 millimeters (20 inches) in 8 hours.
NPR reported on November 2, 2024, that climate change made the intense rainfall about 12% heavier and twice as likely, according to a rapid analysis by World Weather Attribution. According to Mongabay on March 12, 2025, the 2024 Valencia floods impacted 450,000 hectares and caused at least 205 deaths.
European Flooding Crisis
According to Euronews on April 15, 2025, storms and flooding across Europe in 2024 affected a total of 413,000 people, led to the loss of at least 335 lives and are estimated to have cost at least €18 billion in damages. The publication reported that last year was the hottest year on record for Europe, with 45 per cent of days much warmer than average.
World Weather Attribution reported that climate change doubled the likelihood of severe rainfall from Storm Boris in September 2024, leading to deadly floods across Central Europe. According to the Center for Disaster Philanthropy on March 28, 2025, some regions of Austria received five times the average September rainfall in just a few days, leading to 12 broken dams.
Other Global Flood Events
CAF America reported on September 25, 2024, that unprecedented global flooding impacted regions across Central Asia, East Africa, West Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central Europe. According to CAF America, typhoons like Gaemi and Yagi brought heavy rains to the Philippines and Southeast Asia.
Mongabay reported on March 12, 2025, that the 2024 Porto Alegre floods in Brazil displaced thousands, noting that torrential rains began in April and lasted six weeks, bringing overflowing rivers and massive mudslides.
Climate Science and Attribution
Expert Analysis on Climate-Flood Connection
PBS NewsHour reported on March 13, 2023, that according to a study published in Nature Water, the intensity of extreme drought and rainfall has “sharply” increased over the past 20 years. Matthew Rodell, study author and deputy director of Earth sciences at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, told PBS NewsHour: “I was surprised to see how well correlated the global intensity was with global mean temperatures.”
According to UNEP, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that there is high confidence that intense precipitations are an increasing trend in Europe, especially for winter flooding. UNEP reported that the global average temperature is now 1.1°C higher than the beginning of last century.
NPR reported on November 2, 2024, that Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, wrote: “One of the clearest near-term consequences of global warming, aside from rising temperatures themselves, is an increase in the most extreme rain events.”
According to TIME on July 11, 2025, Katharine Hayhoe wrote that warmer air holds more moisture, so when a storm passes through, it’s capable of dumping much more rain than it would have fifty or a hundred years ago. TIME reported that climate research finds a 1.3 degree temperature increase means the atmosphere can hold about 9% more moisture.
Natural Variability and Attribution Complexity
However, the science on flood attribution shows complexity. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, a study of over 1,200 gauges found that “the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone.” The USGS reported that changes over time in major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends.
ScienceDirect reported that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that “globally there is no clear and widespread evidence of changes in flood magnitude or frequency in observed flood records.” According to ScienceDirect, that assessment noted many studies have not separated the effects of human catchment alterations from those of climate.
Population vs. Climate Drivers
Nature Communications reported that between 2020 and 2100, the population likely exposed to flood hazard will increase from 1.6 to 1.9 billion people. According to the study, of this change, approximately 21.1% is due to climate change, 76.8% is due to population change, and 2.1% is due to both climate and population changing simultaneously.
PMC reported that globally the largest driver of uncertainty in flood exposure is population change, while climate change remains a smaller but still important driver. According to PMC, the global increase in exposure between 2020 and 2100 is primarily driven by low-GDP regions.
Climate Justice and Pakistan’s Vulnerability
Al Jazeera reported on June 28, 2025, that Pakistan’s climate change minister, Musadiq Malik, said: “I don’t look at this as a crisis of climate. I look at this as a crisis of justice and this lopsided allocation that we are talking about.” According to Al Jazeera, Malik said that while two countries produce 45 percent of carbon emissions, 85 percent of the world’s green financing goes to the top 10 emitting countries.
Al Jazeera reported that earlier in 2025, a former head of Pakistan’s central bank said the country needed an annual investment of $40 to $50 billion until 2050 to meet climate challenges despite being responsible for about half a percent of global CO2 emissions. According to Al Jazeera, in January 2023, pledges worth about $10 billion were reported, but Pakistan received only $2.8 billion the following year.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies
Early Warning Systems
According to UNDP, the GLOF-II Project is working to mitigate risks of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods by installing Early Warning Systems in 24 valleys of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit Baltistan. Frontiers reported on March 17, 2023, that flood early warning systems have been implemented widely in Pakistan, though not all at-risk residents take immediate action.
According to the International Growth Centre, a joint study by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank in 2021 revealed that Pakistan has high exposure to flooding (ranked eighth), yet there is a big gap between early warnings and early response. The publication reported that the National Disaster Management Authority and Meteorological Department issued early warnings in June about more than usual rainfall, but authorities failed to take precautionary measures in time.
Technological Innovations
According to npj Natural Hazards, advanced machine-learning methods like GeoPINS within the FloodCast framework demonstrate notable improvements in simulating flood dynamics, especially in data-deficient regions. The publication reported that these methodologies enable more precise flood predictions, enhancing disaster preparedness.
International Examples
World Economic Forum reported that Bangladesh has been a pioneer in using innovative and grassroots power as early-warning systems for floods. According to the publication, using human capital coupled with smartphone technology, the country collects data down to the village level to predict potential floods.
World Economic Forum reported that Bangladesh uses text messages as awareness and warnings to those living on the path of a flood, which has significantly reduced the magnitude of damage in the country.
Future Projections and Recommendations
Nature Scientific Reports reported that understanding relationships between climate change impact on extreme events and water availability is essential in future-proofed planning. According to the publication, results show an intensification of extreme precipitation and flood events over all climate regions which increases as water availability increases.
European Commission reported on August 3, 2023, that the EU pledged more than €1 billion to support transboundary action on water management and water-related scientific research. According to the publication, in Milan, the LIFE Metro Adapt project provided local urban planners with guidelines to apply natural solutions to prevent flooding.
Environmental Defense Fund reported that nature-based climate solutions, such as reforestation and land restoration, can both reduce the impacts of extreme weather events and absorb CO2. According to EDF, implementing solutions that provide additional benefits for communities while considering the impact on vulnerable populations is crucial.
Conclusion
The devastating floods in Pakistan represent part of a global pattern of intensifying extreme weather events. While climate scientists have established clear links between global warming and increased extreme precipitation, the relationship between climate change and specific flood events remains complex, with natural variability, population growth, and infrastructure development playing significant roles.
As Pakistan and other vulnerable nations face increasing flood risks, the focus must shift to comprehensive adaptation strategies, including improved early warning systems, nature-based solutions, and international cooperation on climate finance. The disparity between those most responsible for emissions and those most affected by climate impacts underscores the urgent need for climate justice and equitable resource allocation in building flood resilience worldwide.
